By Alan Chan

KOTA KINABALU, Malaysia--China’s aggressive militarisation of the South China Sea (SCS) is well-known and widely condemned by the ASEAN littoral states that border the sea but Beijing’s belligerent ways are not merely confined to island building, illegal fishing and territorial intrusions.

While it should have raised red flags and drawn greater attention (and that would have been the case should the infamous Wuhan COVID-19 pandemic did not happen), the incident of a Jin Class ballistic missile submarine surfacing near Vietnamese fishing boats near the Paracel Islands casts an ominous shadow on the region.

The submarine is both nuclear powered and nuclear armed, capable of carrying a dozen submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) each of which is capable of carrying up to three nuclear warheads.

Nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines can operate submerged for months at a time and stay hidden beneath the waves throughout their patrol. Surfacing next to another country's vessel is unusual and suggests that something has gone wrong. Something serious enough to warrant sacrificing its main asset: stealth, according to renowned naval warfare expert H I Sutton.

Herein lies the problem, it is already bad enough that China is aggressively exploiting the SCS, scooping up valuable fish that ASEAN’s 622 million people need as a critical source of protein, is building and militarising artificial islands, ostensibly to intimidate the sea’s ASEAN claimants and ruining the local marine ecology in the process.

Direct threat to ASEAN’s centrality, neutrality

ASEAN has held to the tradition of maintaining the region as a neutral region and to this end its members signed the  Declaration on the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) on 27 November 1971 and more importantly signed the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ Treaty) in 1995.

Together, these treaties lay out the aspirations and desires of those both ruling and living in the ASEAN region. Yes to ASEAN centrality and neutrality and no to nuclear weapons being based in the region. And for the most part all member states, even the problematic Myanmar have kept to their commitment.

However China’s moves to not only militarise the region but conduct nuclear submarine patrols in the region will inevitably force the hand of ASEAN members. They will have to reevaluate their commitment to neutrality and their stand against nuclear weapons.

These states will seek to not only build up their own military capacities but also seek to come under the protection of the US nuclear umbrella. In an attempt to intimidate ASEAN states, China could very well find nuclear tipped missiles based in ASEAN pointing towards its soft underbelly, adding to the strain of US nuclear forces that are already wearily eyeing Beijing.

ASEAN members will increasingly gravitate to the US, which must in turn be open to full spectrum corporation, not only in bolstering the region as part of its commitment to a rules based order but also to ensure its own freedom of navigation in the Malacca Straits and SCS itself, with both being of vital strategic interest to the US for trade, economic and defensive activities.

Submarines built to sink

The fact that China’s shoddy nuclear submarines are prone to accidents, lacking the powerful and sophisticated navigational and sonar equipment of Western and even Russian counterparts, means that the possibility of a submarine going down with dozens of nuclear warheads and a reactor to boot grows daily. Such an incident will make Chernobyl or Fukushima look like a picnic.

Having hundreds or thousands of kilograms of weapons grade nuclear material resting in the resource rich sea will inevitably threaten the food security of ASEAN. It will also economically wipe out numerous fishing and coastal communities by contamination alone, not to mention destroying tourist spots and putting the lives and health of millions at risk.

Destructive, dangerous and reckless

Since 2013 the Chinese government has dredged and mostly destroyed ecologically delicate reefs in disputed waters in order to build seven major military bases complete with ports, airstrips and radar and missile installations, according to Forbes.

Between 2013 and 2016, huge construction vessels pulverised the reefs in order to create the raw materials for the bases. The dredger Tianjing alone shifted 4,500 cubic metres of materials every hour, “enough to nearly fill two Olympic-size swimming pools,” according to National Interest.

After all the environmental destruction and effort, reports have emerged that the islands are in fact sinking due to poor quality concrete, unsuitable for marine engineering being used in the construction of these islands.

Given the propensity of the Chinese to arm these islands and use them as supply bases, having one of these islands collapse, especially should it be secretly be used to host a ballistic missile submarine is certain to keep certain individuals in the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) awake at night.

No doubt such foolish moves are already in the works if not already implemented and along with the loss of an island, its garrison and hugely expensive ballistic missile submarine, it would be a huge embarrassment. But such a nightmarish scenario is not unthinkable with President Xi Jinping having secured a third term and pushing for a more aggressive posturing in the SCS and Taiwan.