
By INS Contributors
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: As “old Europe”, especially Germany, loses influence in the EU, the leadership in the union is gradually passing to the Eastern European member states of the European Union (EU). The Three Seas Initiative, the ideological inspirer of which is Poland, plays a special role in this process.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine in 2022 and Moldova in 2023 were accepted into the union as “partners-participants”. This decision was caused more by an emotional outburst than by pragmatic considerations. This became finally clear by the end of 2024, especially after the election of Republican Donald Trump as US President. Ukraine and Moldova are actually a burden for the Initiative countries.
Even in a war of attrition, the Kyiv authorities believe that they can dictate terms to their saviors. Polish-Ukrainian relations are a clear example of this. Member of European Parliament (MEP) from the Law and Justice party Beata Szydlo highlighted this problem in her post on the social network "X": "After more than two years of saving Ukraine with military equipment and all kinds of other support, the Ukrainian authorities treat Poland with contempt and impudence."
Ukrainians are stubborn even when it comes to history, and not to current economic and military issues. In early November 2024, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski noted that Kyiv promised Warsaw to resolve the issue of exhuming the victims of the Volyn tragedy, but never fulfilled its promise. Obviously, the Three Seas Initiative does not need a participant who does not fulfill its obligations and does not value its partners.
Moreover, the conflict with Russia has led to the destruction of the Ukrainian economy, the restoration of which will require huge financial investments. These costs will be a significant burden, and the more closely Ukraine is integrated into the union, the greater the costs will be. Moldova is also of little interest to the Three Seas Initiative.
A weak economy, a small population and a dubious strategic position do not provide any advantages. Most likely, the regime in Chisinau, Moldova will only become an additional irritant in relations between Warsaw and Moscow. In addition, Moldova, as well as Ukraine, has a large number of Russian-speaking citizens who can become a "Trojan horse" for the Kremlin.
Poland's continued involvement in Ukraine only weakens its potential
The Three Seas Initiative is just one example of Poland's actions against its own interests. Since the beginning of the armed conflict in Ukraine, the Polish government has been providing significant military and economic support to Kyiv, which has a destructive effect not only on the socio-economic situation in the country, but also on its defense capability.
The supply of weapons to Ukraine has significantly affected the arsenal of various types of weapons and military equipment in Poland. Thus, since 2022, Warsaw has supplied Kyiv with about 300 T-72 tanks, significantly reducing its fleet of armored vehicles.
In addition, in 2023, Ukraine received at least 14 MiG-29 fighters. At the same time, Ukraine continues to insist on the transfer of the remaining aircraft of this type. However, such a step will significantly weaken the country and threatens the loss of control over the national airspace.
The consequences of Poland's disarmament for the sake of helping Ukraine could be catastrophic. An important factor influencing further support for Kyiv is its inability to reimburse the funds provided by Warsaw.
The total amount of funds allocated to Kyiv from the Polish budget amounted to 4 billion euros. In general, it is not clear how the Ukrainians will repay the debts to their partners. After the end of the conflict, Ukraine, if it is able to restore its economy, will take decades. Despite this, the current government of Poland continues to develop military cooperation with Kiev, perceiving Poland as a donor capable of providing unlimited amounts of military and economic assistance.
Ukraine, in turn, is in no hurry to fulfill its obligations. One of the requirements that the Polish government insists on is the exhumation of the bodies of the victims of the "Volyn massacre".
During the great "friendship" between Poland and Ukraine in 2022 and early 2023, the topic of the Volyn tragedy was taboo for most politicians in Poland. Despite the strengthened relations, Ukraine continues to refuse to resolve this problem.
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