Source National Interest

WASHINGTON, US: As Syria faces continued conflict, Israel may be planning a wider confrontation with the new government.

Israel is increasingly focused on developments in Syria. Over the last month, Israeli officials have been closely monitoring changes in Damascus and southern Syria near the Israeli border. In late February, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel demands “complete demilitarisation of southern Syria in the provinces of Quneitra, Deraa and Suweida from the forces of the new regime.”

Further, Netanyahu states Israel “will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community [a religious minority] in southern Syria.”

To underpin Israel’s policy, the new Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff Eyal Zamir visited the Golan Heights on March 9. Zamir came into office on March 5, taking over from Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi. Zamir faces several complex challenges. It is his duty to restore faith in the IDF after the October 7, 2023 attack, which led to the deaths of 1,200 Israelis and 240 taken hostage.

However, his visit just days after taking the reins of the military illustrates how laser-focused Israel is on this northern border.

Zamir met with the head of the IDF division in charge of the Golan border with Syria. He also visited IDF positions along what the IDF calls the “area of separation” with Syria. This is the ceasefire line that dates from 1974. However, Israel has pushed into a buffer zone along this line since the fall of the Assad regime last December.

The IDF has established new posts in the buffer zone and atop Mount Hermon, the mountain peak that overlooks southern Syria, northern Israel and Lebanon. IDF troops grabbed the Syrian side of the mountain on December 8.

The first moves were initially quiet and included strikes on military hardware of the former Syrian regime, such as airfields and helicopters. Late February and early March brought a significant shift in tone. Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs put out a post on social media on March 9 with an image of Syria’s new president, Ahmed Sharaa.

“Jihadists in suits are still jihadists. The massacre in Syria proves it,” the ministry said.

The ministry’s statement came in the wake of fighting in the Syrian city of Latakia where numerous civilians were killed. The fighting initially involved attacks on Syrian security forces by militants still loyal to Assad, followed by retaliation from armed groups linked to the new Syrian government. The latter have gone on a rampage, killing up to hundreds of civilians. Latakia is home to many of the Alawite Syrian minority, who formed the base of the former regime’s support.

The killings in Latakia thus have political and religious overtones. Israel’s officials have condemned the massacre and warned Damascus not to do the same against the Kurds or Druze in Syria. Israel’s Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism, Amichai Chikli, wrote that “Israel will act to protect the Druze minority in areas near its border, and efforts must be made to defend all minority populations in Syria, with an emphasis on the Kurds, from the jihadist genocide of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.”

Israel is now singling out Syrian president Sharaa and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS is the group that came to power in Damascus after defeating the Assad regime’s forces. HTS has worked to solidify its control and unify other former Syrian rebel groups to create a transitional government. Sharaa and his foreign minister have held talks with European envoys. He has travelled to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan for meetings. The wider legion and the West have engaged with Sharaa cautiously.

Israel’s condemnations of Damascus and decision to enforce demilitarization in southern Syria represent a potential challenge to Sharaa and also illustrate that Israel is willing to be more aggressive. Israel has carried out military action in Syria over the years, much of it clandestine.

During the Syrian Civil War, the IDF often carried out strikes on Iranian weapons smuggling in the country. These strikes increased over the years as Iran sought to play a more significant role in Syria after 2015. The Israelis dubbed these operations the “Campaign Between the Wars.”

When the Assad regime fell it seemed like good news for Israel. The regime had facilitated Iran’s backing of Hezbollah. Assad was not only close to Iran but also hosted Palestinian military groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which played a role in the October 7 massacre. However, a honeymoon with the new authorities in Damascus never occurred. Instead, the IDF carried out strikes in southern Syria targeting former Syrian regime bases.

For now, the demands that the Syrian government “demilitarize” southern Syria may not be challenged by Damascus. Sharaa’s security forces are made up of men with small arms and civilian-style vehicles such as pick-up trucks repurposed for military use. In short, he doesn’t have an army. The disaster in Latakia illustrates how he lacks control over his own forces. Some of those who back the new government are former Syrian rebels in southern Syria. Some of these groups received tacit backing from Israel and Jordan during the civil war. Therefore, they are likely to be flexible, for now, regarding Israel’s new policies.

Wider questions loom. Will Israel do more to support the Druze? Will the Druze want Israel’s help or find an accommodation with Damascus, as appears to be happening? Beyond the Druze areas in Suweida, some thirty miles from the Golan border, other regions play an essential role in southern Syria. The U.S. military mans a garrison in Tanf near the Jordan-Iraq border. Here, the garrison backs the Syrian Free Army, a small former Syrian rebel unit that was trained to fight ISIS.

Further east, U.S. forces on the Euphrates River are working with the Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF is made up of Kurds, whom Israeli officials also say they will support. While Israeli rhetoric condemning the new Syrian government is—so far—just that, it is clear that Jerusalem is carving out a new, more muscular, policy in Syria.