By Collins Chong Yew Keat

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: President Xi Jinping’s visit to Southeast Asia in a three-country charm offensive, reflects the strategic intent to symbolise the regional spirit of historical connections with Malaysia and send a message to the US and the West about how China still maintains the ultimate regional grip on the region’s economic and security spheres historically and now, securing its status as the regional hegemony.

The message is simple: China is better than Trump’s America

This visit is also timely to be seen as the ultimate answer to Trump’s tariff war on Beijing, and also to deepen Malaysia’s integration into China-centric economic and security architectures—particularly the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Dual Circulation Strategy, and Global Security Initiative (GSI), also including potentially using Malaysia as a buffer or wedge in the global trade decoupling process.

Trump’s tariffs spared no one in the region, creating a rare common cause between China and these countries, giving a new opening for Beijing to present itself as the much better saviour and the alternative to Washington. Beijing might sense that these nations may now be more receptive to closer Chinese partnership since they, too, are suffering under U.S. trade actions.

However, it is wise not to have knee jerk responses to quickly join this bandwagon at the expense of our much larger and important ties with the US, especially how America will continue to prosper and have a far more resilient economy and consistent wealthiest economy status in the world for years to come, especially under Trump’s new vision and bold policies.

Trump is watching Xi’s charm offensive here in Southeast Asia closely, and this will most likely translate to responses in the tariff tools. Hence, we should follow the footsteps of Canberra and to refrain from committing ourselves to any moves that support tariff retaliation or other actions that might be interpreted as hostile.

Malaysia must tread carefully and not have knee-jerk reactions to joining any regional or global pushback in denouncing US protectionism or facilitating any potential circumvention of economic tools or sanctions imposed by the US. This will harm our ever-important trade and defence ties with the US, which remain the most important for the country.

Still, historical precedent based on trust, quality, assurance, and long-term potential has made it clear that Washington has and will provide the current and future umbrella of security assurance and economic, trade, and technological capacity and development, especially under Trump's reform plan.

In 2024, the U.S. was ASEAN’s largest FDI source and second largest trading partner, and remaining the biggest assurance provider in maintaining freedom of navigation and the sanctity of international law and maritime trade routes.

Australia has been wise and strategic in avoiding this new build-up of the alternative force to dislodge the US and escalate the pushback against Trump’s tariffs by refraining from joining China’s call to join hands in pushing back against Trump. Malaysia must do the same.

Charm Offensive in Courting the Region

Southeast Asia remains crucial for China. It serves as its southern flank, providing the maritime and land routes for its food, energy, security, geopolitical deterrence, and survival. It is the gateway to the Indian Ocean and a crucial link in global trade routes.

China’s vision of a “Polar Silk Road” seeks to develop Arctic shipping routes to Europe via the Bering Strait and polar waters, shortening trade lanes and reducing reliance on the traditional Malacca Strait/South China Sea passage. Despite this, it is still strategic for China to secure its southern flank for maritime trade in this region, and China’s Arctic Ambition also strongly ties with the importance of its southern flank in serving as the status quo dependence for now.

China often invokes ASEAN in its global initiatives especially the Global Security Initiative and  Global Development Initiative, the two "brainchilds" of Xi, to show broad support. By keeping ASEAN close, China can claim moral leadership of the Global South against a U.S. that is portrayed as protectionist and unilateral.

China’s domestic growth model is under strain, and it is working towards crisis management and diversification mode by shoring up trade with neighbors, repositioning supply chains, and locking in Belt and Road partnerships to compensate for lost Western markets.

With up to 245 percent tariffs, the renewed trade war under Trump essentially prices Chinese goods out of the U.S. market. China’s exports to the U.S. were already stagnating.

Beijing’s immediate response has been two-pronged: rallying others against US tariffs, coordinating positions with neighbours, and ensuring China is not alone by ramping up its combined weight and voice with others.

China likely wants to encourage these neighbors not to undercut China by quickly making concessions to the U.S. for tariff relief. Circumventing trade barriers or re-export hubs in ASEAN, provides relief for China, where keeping regional trade flowing mitigates the direct hit on Chinese industries. Xi will seek to ensure supply chain connectivity is maintained or enhanced.

China would want to keep ASEAN as China’s largest trading partner (in 2024, ASEAN-China trade was $963 billion, surpassing China’s trade with the EU or U.S.), providing as the immediate buffer and relief from the decoupling with the US and now that it is facing its own internal economic crisis.

By moving early in the year, Xi and Beijing can shape the narrative and diplomatic momentum in ASEAN before major summits later in 2025.
The timing also aligns with political transitions taking place in the region. In Cambodia, a new prime minister, Hun Manet took office in late 2023, succeeding his father.

The visits are intended to send a striking visual and political message: at a time when the West is turning inward and giving up the world, China is actively engaging as true friends and creating a new sense of trust and responsibility.

Beijing realises that it is also facing a downfall in public sentiment and trust in many ASEAN countries due to its assertiveness and strong-arm tactics. The latest survey indicated the U.S. had regained a slight edge as the region’s preferred leading power over China. This charm offensive is partly aimed at reducing this trust deficit while maintaining the Sinocentric order.

Over the past decade, especially during the Biden administration, the US has made inroads in Southeast Asia, and the visit is hoped to rectify this by consolidating the soft power outreach.

A divided ASEAN continues to give Beijing the advantage, and the region's being under China's economic and influence orbit has made the US and the West practically give up on ASEAN's efficacy as an entity in standing up strongly against China.

ASEAN, in the eyes of the West, is seen as weak in standing up for the rule of law and the sanctity of international law because of the fear of upsetting the apple cart, Beijing.

China’s outreach to these countries can dissuade them from any cooperation that bolsters the U.S. military footprint.  Vietnam’s bamboo diplomacy and its Four No’s have so far refused to allow U.S. bases, which keeps Hanoi friendly to Beijing, helping maintain that stance.

Using the disparity of approach by the US and the West compared to China, Xi promises investments and win-win development as opposed to the values-driven model, lectures on democracy, and criteria-laden aid offerings of the West in the attempt to create a contrasting vision and approach.

Over Reliance on the Anti-US Model is a Mistake

Malaysia must tread carefully and not to have knee jerk reactions in joining any regional or global pushback in denouncing the US protectionism or to facilitate any potential circumvention of economic tools or sanctions imposed by the US, as this will harm our ever important trade and defence ties with the US, which remains the most important for the country.

Understanding the true nature of the situation and the equation at play is essential. America remains the world’s biggest, wealthiest, most stable, and most important market and economy now, and in the foreseeable future.

America has an almost USD30 trillion GDP, with China being a distant second at USD18 trillion.

To balance Malaysia's approach and protect its national and regional interests, it must face the reality that , as seen from this tariff fallout, America remains the most important economic, market, trade, and security source that Malaysia and ASEAN depend on primarily.

Despite the repeated false hopes and assurances that Malaysia or the region can easily switch to RCEP, BRICS, ASEAN, China, Global South, and the other platforms under the so-called alternative system to the US, the reality states otherwise.

This reality will be further reaffirmed when Trump’s economic revival and Make America Wealthy Again policies fully come to fruition within this short time frame, which will further widen the economic and military gap between the US and its closest rivals including China.

Despite the years of economic bandwagoning and friendshoring to these alternative platforms, the country and the region still have not received or yielded the intended real impact on the economic transformation and transition.

Washington’s rules-based approach will uphold the sanctity of international law and the rights of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, including Malaysia’s.

Malaysia and the region will be better off, safer, and more assured in the tested, trusted, and proven conventional model of the US-led international order of peace, rules-driven stability.

*Collins Chong Yew Keat is a foreign affairs and strategy analyst and author in University of Malaya.*