Source Murray Hunter

BANGKOK, Thailand: With Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese failing to meet with US president Donald Trump on his last visit to the United States and G7 meeting in Canada, Australia is heading into a time of isolation.

The recent Ukrainian missile and drone attack on Russia and Israeli attack on Iran signal a radical change in the nature of warfare. An aggressor can now attack another country, separated by other countries or vast land or sea distances, through applying medium and long-range missiles.

This signals an urgent need f or Australian defence planners to drastically alter the nation’s defence strategy, in the light of changing technologies and new battle tactics.

Australia’s commitment to AUKUS with the United Kingdom and United States requires a review for several reasons.

First, strike platforms like submarines now play only a secondary role in strategic warfare. A submarine just doesn’t carry enough missiles and/or drones to make a difference. Land bases with instant supply lines are most important.

In conventional war, based upon Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Iran rely on heavy volume missile and drone attacks to overwhelm an adversary’s air defences. Strategic nuclear- powered submarines with non-nuclear arms just don’t carry enough for battle. Submarines can only play a limited role in such wars.

Second, the cost of Australia building/purchasing nuclear-powered submarines is just too expensive for the utility they can provide. This money could be channelled into much more effective defence initiatives.

The cost of the AUKUS commitment is something Australia cannot afford. It’s a luxury for Australian defence, not a staple need. Too expensive and unnecessary for Australia.

Thirdly, both the UK and US have policies focused on containment and confrontation in their geo-defence stances. This is too aggressive for a small nation like Australia. Australia should just focus on coexistence with its near neighbours and the rest of the world. The world is very quickly becoming a very different place than it was just 2 years ago.

Australia is now in isolation

Australia is no longer important to the US strategic world view. With another PLA ship convoy ready to circumnavigate Australia once again, arguably prompted by Australian military air operations with the Philippines in the South China Sea, the US will not be there to interdict any Chinese vessels.

Australia might be a dialogue partner with ASEAN from 1974, but the Australian-ASEAN partnership has not developed much since. ASEAN is now Australia’s third largest trading partner (14.3 percent of Australia’s total trade), higher than Japan or the US.

But Australia’s attention to the region has/is being neglected. Today there are less schools than ever before teaching Bahasa Indonesia in their curricula.

Australian bilateral relations with its closest ASEAN neighbour Indonesia has not gone much beyond a transactional nature, where Australia’s importance to Indonesia is slowly drifting away. In January, Indonesia became a full member of BRICS.

Australia isn’t much of a priority for Indonesia anymore as it sees a much larger place in the world for itself. Australia missed the boat with Indonesia.

Australia is being isolated to the point where it even has competition in the South Pacific, an area it took for granted. No nation will come to the assistance of Australia if needed.

For far too long, Australians have been duped about China being the ‘big bad boogey man of the north’. Remember the old domino theory and that there were WMDs in Iraq. Realistic analysis is required about what are the real threats to Australia.

No one is assessing the threat of liberalised immigration that may have allowed ‘sleeper cells’ of military age people into the country. This exists within the United States today, there is no reason the same doesn’t exist within Australia.

Australia needs a relook at its current defence plans

Facing the realities, Australia has no army, navy, or air force to speak about. Even Australia’s neighbours have larger armed forces today. The wars that are going on now suggest a need to re-evaluate Australia’s current defence planning.

Fighter aircraft are now too slow, drones are a tactical weapon, useful in tactical situations and surveillance. War is now fought by missiles. Countries need plenty of them, as they play a major role in weakening air defences of adversaries.

Australia needs to invest in more research on missiles

Short-range missiles are used to takedown aircraft and shipping. Medium to long range ballistic missiles are the important strategic weapons of today.

The new generation of hypersonic missiles with potent non-nuclear payloads are almost as damaging as small nuclear bombs, but without the radiation fallout. The Russian Oreshnik missile has become a massive deterrent in Europe.

That what Australia needs and can afford, indigenously developed and supported by surveillance and tactical drones. Australia’s navy and air force should be concerned with coastal issues and the continental shelf around Australia.

Such an approach would benefit Australia more than the AUKUS commitment.

Australia has a background in rocket research since the 1960s and there is a private Australian company about to launch an orbital rocket in the near future. Based upon today’s changes in geo-political-techno environment, its time for Australia to review where it must go with defence. Australia may need to make a radical departure from its existing track.