By Collins Chong Yew Keat

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: By reaffirming its commitment to the region through Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s attendance at this week’s ASEAN meetings in Kuala Lumpur, the United States has presented Southeast Asia a rare and urgent chance to correct past strategic drift and declare that Washington remains the region’s most essential economic and security partner. 

The presence of Rubio and the choice of attending the regional meetings in Malaysia as the first stop in Asia sends a powerful message to both allies and adversaries, that the US is here to stay in its overarching agenda of maintaining a free and open Indo Pacific, despite Beijing’s actions in courting US allies and in sowing discontent on the tariffs in creating new pushback mechanisms in the region, and despite the distractions in the Middle East and in Ukraine.

This shows that the ultimate aim has never wavered, that is of China’s imminent threat and the biggest pacing and primary challenge to the US, from the bellicose actions in South China Sea to the intimidation of Taiwan, to the rising capacities in new kinetic and non kinetic warfare capabilities and in the chokehold of key resources.

This presence is meant to put a stop to the conventional worries of both allies and neutral players in the region, that the US under Trump has never wavered from the commitment to defend the rules based order, but contingent upon these players showing their sincere and reciprocal intent to play their part in increasing their own defence spending and commitment, and not taking Washington for a ride.

This lopsided approach has been tolerated for decades, but the buck stops with Trump, and the tariff measures are not meant to punish, but to correct the gap and to ensure regional players share the burden fairly, without piggybacking on Washington’s assured defence support.

Washington is Not for Easy Piggyride 

With the same consistent message being sent to, and accepted by, NATO and Quad, Rubio is carrying a bigger carrot than a stick approach, knowing that Southeast Asian players in particular remain sitting ducks against bigger threats from Beijing without the conventional defence support from Washington and with the traditional limitations of its own self imposed strategic hedging and neutrality mantra, which opens up further to Beijing’s exploit.

This presence will give a new found trust and confidence to regional players that the US continues to be fully focused on the region, and on China, while at the same time keeping these regional players to be on their toes with the message that this defence assurance and deterrence support are not unconditional.

The Region Must do More for Burden Sharing

The US needs the region’s support in shoring up critical resources’ security, and is aware that it still holds the ultimate card in being the sole and most critical defence deterrence to most of the  regional players in their security needs to make up for their stark vulnerabilities.

Washington can still make a strategic quid pro quo transcending the tariff measure alone by playing the defence support and power presence card, but it has not come to this stage knowing that Beijing might capitalise further.

Rubio’s presence is thus seen as a smart move in maintaining the equilibrium for these regional players to feel compelled to increase their efforts, to limit their economic pivot to China and BRICS, while allowing space and time for them to show their mutual sincerity through their tariff negotiations and adjustments and in reminding them that just the tariff leverage enjoyed by Washington alone can have far bigger consequences to these regional economies, and what more the defence card.

It sends a consistent message, following Hegseth’s assurance and argument during the Shangri-La Dialogue, that the US power support, while continuing to provide the ever reliable security umbrella for the region, must not be taken for granted, which is exactly what is happening in this region.

Trump’s administration stays consistent with one simple mantra, the region and the world need the US more than vice versa, hence both the tariff measures and the defence spending push for other global players can be done in parallel and not at the expense of one or the other.

The region and ASEAN continue to be hypocritical in their stances, demanding American security umbrella while continuing to rip off Washington in tariff and market advantages, while being vague and refraining from standing up against Beijing for the fear of economic retaliation.

America Remains Unrivalled By Far

By all power measures and indicators, the US still enjoys power parity over Beijing in the Indo Pacific, and despite Moscow’s distractions in Ukraine and Beijing’s calculated move in forming a new axis of power concentration, Trump’s surgical and strategic actions in Iran creates clear deterrence for Beijing and Pyongyang and set the deterrence precedent.

Trump strengthened and revived NATO, and this move is being replicated in the Quad, and Southeast Asia and East Asia now have got the same message that strength, trust, and deterrence come with mutual backing and sincerity, not being taken for granted as before.

ASEAN must take this strategic and rare opening to reconnect and repair its broken ties with Washington, to align itself with the long term overarching similar objective with Washington in securing a rules based order and standing up strongly against any actions to threaten this international normative rule, not just in rhetorical and diplomatic easy approaches but through decisive and strong measures imposed.

The US remains the sole security provider with the biggest deterrence to the region. No other country but the U.S. has the blue-water naval capacity to challenge China’s militarized outposts in the South China Sea. ASEAN claimant states rely heavily on U.S. naval presence for strategic cover, and the US is still the only partner offering high-end missile defense, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) technology. China offers none of these.

In normative power, the US still represents liberal trade norms, rule of law, and institutional checks that attract foreign investment where Silicon Valley innovation, and venture capital ecosystems are key destinations for ASEAN talent and capital. China lacks equivalent global pull.

A Strong Message of Commitment to Washington's Free and Open Indo Pacific

Malaysia as the ASEAN Chair of 2025, has the rare platform to anchor a realignment that benefits the entire region, where hosting Rubio in Kuala Lumpur should be used to issue a joint statement reaffirming U.S.-ASEAN strategic partnership, especially in defence and deterrence, economic security, digital trade, and maritime freedom.

This sends a strategic messaging to China: that while Malaysia values its trade with China, it must signal that ASEAN is not a tributary system under Beijing’s sphere, where engaging Rubio on economic and security corridors including digital, technology  and critical resources development standards, and military training, Malaysia gains tools that China does not offer.

If the region continues to be stuck in its power gap and security vulnerability by refusing to take a clear stance, it will lose both US economic and defence assurance, and the always touted Chinese restraint, which will see it further being left alone and vulnerable.

Rubio’s trip is the best window since the Trump-Biden transition for ASEAN to reclaim balance, trust, and agency in U.S. relations.

To delay this pivot is to risk falling deeper into asymmetric dependency on China economically, strategically, and politically. ASEAN’s future depends on bold recalibration and that starts now, in Kuala Lumpur.

This new rebalancing is vital for the long term survival for the region, and also sending a clear message to China that it is not the inevitable regional and neighbouring hegemonic power that the region has been fixated on for decades now.

For the past decade, ASEAN has flirted with a dangerous dependency, tilting closer to China in trade, infrastructure, and even strategic language, while failing to fully embrace the enduring value of the U.S. presence. This drift was encouraged by the continuous dependence on China’s BRICS and ASEAN’s hedging diplomacy through the reluctance to offend China which has weakened internal unity.

Rubio’s visit implies that the Indo-Pacific, and especially Southeast Asia, is now the decisive front line in great power competition, but where the region itself must also play its part. ASEAN must now decide where it stands and to stop the past rot.

*Collins Chong Yew Keat is a foreign affairs and strategy analyst and author in University of Malaya.*