By Alan Ting

KOTA KINABALU, Malaysia: For the past two decades, American foreign policy has been consumed by endless crises in the Middle East and, more recently, by the grinding war in Ukraine. These commitments drain U.S. resources, attention, and political will.

Yet the greatest challenge to American power is not in Gaza, Syria, or even in Eastern Europe. It lies further east in the rise of China, a state that is not only the United States’ most capable near-peer competitor but one that is deliberately exploiting American distractions to expand its reach across Asia and beyond.

It is time for the U.S. to reorient its strategic focus. Disengagement from Ukraine and the Middle East is not about retreat but about prioritization. China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, its creeping influence operations across ASEAN, and its ability to threaten Australia and vital Indo-Pacific shipping routes present far greater long-term risks to U.S. global standing than any other theater.

China’s Strategy of Exploiting Distraction

China has perfected the art of strategic patience. While Washington pours weapons and diplomatic capital into Ukraine, Beijing consolidates economic influence across ASEAN, intensifies naval patrols in disputed waters, and forges security ties with nations eager for alternatives to U.S. pressure.

While American officials shuttle between Tel Aviv, Riyadh, and Kyiv, Chinese leaders quietly build infrastructure, ports, and political influence that will be harder to roll back in the future.

The strategy is clear. Allow the U.S. to expend blood and treasure in secondary theaters while China accelerates its drive toward regional hegemony. In the past five years alone, China has dramatically expanded its military installations in the South China Sea, ramped up gray-zone operations against Philippine vessels, and tested Australia’s resilience with economic coercion.

It has secured basing arrangements in Cambodia, deepened ties with Myanmar, and cultivated elites across ASEAN with promises of trade and investment. The outcome is a gradual but unmistakable erosion of U.S. influence in a region that is the beating heart of the global economy.

Europe and the Middle East: Secondary Theaters

Advocates for continued U.S. engagement in Ukraine argue that defending Kyiv is essential for preserving the liberal order. But Europe, collectively richer and more populous than Russia, has the means to contain Moscow. America’s disproportionate role in the conflict leaves fewer resources to prepare for the real competitor, China.

The Middle East tells a similar story. It remains a quagmire of sectarian rivalries and endless interventions. American forces have been stuck in cycles of escalation and withdrawal for decades, yielding little strategic gain. Neither Ukraine nor the Middle East has the potential to fundamentally overturn the global balance of power.

China does. Its economy, military modernization, and ideological ambition make it the first true peer competitor the U.S. has faced since the Cold War. If Washington continues to bleed resources in peripheral theaters, it risks losing the contest that matters most.

The South China Sea as the Fulcrum of Global Power

The South China Sea is more than a map dotted with reefs and shoals. It is a vital artery of global commerce. Nearly $3.5 trillion in trade flows through its waters annually, including energy supplies bound for Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

For the United States, maintaining freedom of navigation here is not just about principle but about sustaining the global economy that underwrites American prosperity.

China knows this well. Its expansive “nine-dash line” claim, rejected by international law, is enforced through the construction of militarized artificial islands and aggressive harassment of neighboring states. This campaign has multiple aims.

It is designed to give Beijing coercive leverage over shipping routes, to dominate fisheries that are critical to ASEAN states’ food security and economic survival, and to extract seabed minerals that will determine future dominance in rare earths and energy resources.

If left unchecked, China will turn the South China Sea into an internal lake, marginalizing ASEAN claimants such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, while threatening Australia’s northern approaches and cutting off America’s ability to project power in the Indo-Pacific.

ASEAN’s Vulnerabilities and Beijing’s Leverage

ASEAN nations are on the front line of this struggle. Yet their collective capacity to deter China is weak. Divisions within ASEAN, coupled with economic dependence on Beijing, leave many states reluctant to confront China head-on.

Some governments fear losing trade and investment. Others worry about domestic backlash if they appear to side too closely with Washington. This creates precisely the wedge Beijing exploits. It presents itself as the inevitable power of the future while framing U.S. commitments as temporary and unreliable.

Without decisive American engagement, ASEAN risks paralysis at the very moment when unity is most required.

Helping ASEAN claimants assert their rights is not charity. It is strategy. If Washington provides consistent diplomatic backing, capacity-building, and military support, it strengthens regional resilience against Chinese coercion.

If not, China will succeed in dividing ASEAN and dictating the rules of the game. The Philippines has already borne the brunt of Chinese aggression. Its coast guard ships have been rammed, its fishermen harassed, and its sovereignty openly challenged.

Vietnam has faced similar harassment in its Exclusive Economic Zone, while Malaysia and Indonesia worry about incursions into their waters. Without U.S. backing, these nations risk being picked off one by one, their ability to resist eroded through incremental coercion.

Australia and the Credibility of Alliances

Beyond ASEAN, Australia stands as a key ally whose security is directly threatened by China’s maritime ambitions. Canberra depends on open shipping lanes for trade and energy imports. If Beijing secures dominance in the South China Sea, Australia becomes vulnerable to coercion.

This undermines not only Australia’s sovereignty but the credibility of U.S. security commitments in the Indo-Pacific. For the U.S., defending the South China Sea is therefore about preserving alliances as much as it is about protecting global commerce. A retreat here would signal to allies that American promises are negotiable, exactly the message China wants to send.

A Call for Recalibration

Disengagement from Ukraine and the Middle East does not mean abandonment. It means recalibration. The United States must shift military and diplomatic resources toward the Indo-Pacific, reducing commitments in secondary theaters. It must strengthen ASEAN partnerships by providing maritime patrol assets, intelligence-sharing, and joint training to enhance resilience. It should reinforce alliances with Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, ensuring collective deterrence.

It must also support international legal rulings on the South China Sea and help ASEAN states assert their rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Finally, Washington must prioritize economic engagement with Southeast Asia, offering alternatives to Chinese investment and demonstrating U.S. staying power.

The Costs of Inaction

The stakes are not only regional but global. If China dominates the South China Sea, it will possess an unrivaled strategic advantage that ripples across continents. Control of fisheries will give it leverage over food security.

Control of critical minerals will give it leverage over advanced technologies. Control of shipping lanes will give it leverage over economies from East Asia to Europe. In every dimension, Beijing’s dominance in these waters would translate into unprecedented power.

This reorientation requires political courage. It means telling European partners to shoulder more responsibility in Ukraine and resisting the reflex to plunge into every Middle Eastern crisis. But it is the only way to ensure the U.S. remains competitive against China.

China is not waiting. Each year of American distraction allows Beijing to expand its footprint, entrench its control, and normalize its presence in disputed waters. By the time Washington turns its full attention eastward, it may find that the South China Sea has already slipped beyond its grasp.

Lessons from History

The lesson of history is clear. Great powers fall when they fail to prioritize. Athens squandered resources in Sicily while Sparta consolidated strength. Britain overextended itself in imperial policing while Germany and the U.S. surged ahead. America risks repeating these mistakes if it treats Ukraine and the Middle East as theaters of primary importance.

The Indo-Pacific as the Decisive Theater

The Indo-Pacific is where the future of global order will be decided. The South China Sea is its flashpoint. China is the competitor that can truly reshape the world. Washington cannot afford to be distracted any longer.

*Alan Ting is n observer of regional affairs and global geopolitics based in the Land Below the Wind.*

Illustration image from South China Morning Post.