By Alan Ting

KOTA KINABALU, Malaysia: The illusion of safety is gone. China is no longer a rising power politely asking for a seat at the table. It is an assertive force actively dismantling ASEAN sovereignty piece by piece.

From military aggression in the South China Sea to economic entrapment, political interference, and elite capture, Beijing is closing its grip around Southeast Asia.

If ASEAN continues on its current fragmented path, its member states will soon find themselves reduced to satellites in a Chinese sphere of influence, their independence stripped away under the guise of “partnership.”

This is not speculation. It is happening now.

Beijing’s moves in the South China Sea are the most visible proof. The artificial islands, the missile batteries, the constant harassment of fishing vessels, the deliberate ramming of Filipino boats are all of it is part of a systematic campaign to turn international waters into Chinese-controlled space.

For the Philippines, this has already reached a crisis point: Filipino sailors face daily threats from Chinese coast guard and militia vessels. This is not a distant risk. It is an ongoing act of sovereignty erosion, carried out with military precision.

But Beijing’s strategy is far more insidious than ships and bases. Its influence penetrates the region’s politics and economies. The Belt and Road Initiative has locked Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and others into projects where debt and dependency are weapons.

Chinese-linked firms embed themselves in critical sectors, energy grids, digital infrastructure, ports, and once entrenched, they give Beijing leverage over domestic decision-making. This is not development aid.

It is a methodical construction of dependency chains designed to eliminate strategic choice.

Malaysia illustrates this dual playbook. On the one hand, Kuala Lumpur depends heavily on Chinese trade and investment, with Chinese firms dominating rail, port, and energy infrastructure.

On the other, Chinese survey ships intrude into Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, testing its resolve over oil and gas fields. Trade entrapment is paired with maritime coercion, leaving Malaysia struggling to balance economic opportunity with strategic vulnerability.

The Philippines stands as the most exposed frontline. Chinese coast guard and militia vessels blockade, ram, and water-cannon Filipino ships, daring Manila to resist. Beijing simultaneously wields economic leverage, knowing that Philippine trade and tourism remain deeply tied to China.

Even as Manila strengthens its defense ties with Washington, it risks being strangled into submission if regional solidarity does not back its resistance.

Indonesia faces subtler but equally dangerous encroachments. While Jakarta avoids direct confrontation by claiming non-involvement in South China Sea disputes, Chinese vessels continue to intrude into the Natuna Islands’ waters.

At the same time, Beijing embeds itself in Indonesia’s economy through nickel processing, energy projects, and Belt and Road megaprojects such as the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail.

Economic dependence and maritime pressure combine to give Beijing quiet but growing leverage over Jakarta’s choices.

Thailand, once a cornerstone U.S. ally, has drifted closer to Beijing. Political and military elites cultivate ties with China, while infrastructure and investment projects deepen economic integration.

With Washington’s alliance commitment weakened by years of neglect, Beijing has stepped into the gap, presenting itself as the more reliable partner. Thailand’s gradual tilt shows how even long-standing allies can be peeled away through persistent Chinese influence.

This pattern is not random. It is encirclement. Beijing does not need to conquer Southeast Asia with armies; it only needs to entangle ASEAN states so deeply in dependency and intimidation that sovereignty becomes an illusion.

The tragedy is that ASEAN’s own divisions make Beijing’s job easier. Fragmented responses, half-measures, and endless “dialogue” have left the bloc vulnerable.

Beijing thrives on this weakness. It pressures the Philippines, buys silence from Cambodia, co-opts elites in Thailand, and ensnares Malaysia and Indonesia with infrastructure. Every division within ASEAN is a victory for China.

The solution cannot be business as usual. Vague declarations of ASEAN centrality will not save the region. What is required is nothing less than a new security architecture, an ASEAN defense compact that binds members together against external coercion.

Maritime patrols, intelligence sharing, and a collective response mechanism are essential. The message must be unmistakable: aggression against one ASEAN state will be treated as aggression against all.

The United States must be brought in as a partner, not as a patron, but as a guarantor. Only Washington has the naval power, technology, and economic weight to counterbalance Beijing’s advance. If ASEAN fails to leverage U.S. support now, the region risks sliding irreversibly into Chinese control.

The stakes could not be higher. If ASEAN falls into Beijing’s sphere, the Indo-Pacific balance of power collapses. China would dominate the Malacca Strait, control the South China Sea, and hold economic and strategic leverage over half the world’s trade routes.

For ASEAN states, sovereignty would become nominal. For the world, a free and open Indo-Pacific would cease to exist.

This is the last warning. ASEAN has a narrow window to unite, build a real defense framework, and anchor itself to American support. If it delays, if it continues to believe that neutrality and hedging will protect it, the region will wake up to find its independence already gone.

China is not waiting. Neither can ASEAN.