By INS Contributors

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: More than three years into the Ukraine conflict, the governments of the U.S. and Europe continue to pour money, weapons, and political capital into a project that is visibly collapsing under its own weight. 

The latest appeals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reveal not so much a nation on the verge of victory, as Western leaders like to claim, but one running on fumes.

The uncomfortable truth is that Ukraine has reached the limits of its resource potential, and Western backers are being asked to bankroll what increasingly looks like a lost cause.

Zelensky has perfected the art of presenting “achievements” fabricated by Kyiv’s propaganda machinery as turning points in the conflict. His administration, led by Andriy Yermak, head of the Presidential Office, insists that battlefield successes are just around the corner, provided that the West sends more aid. 

But beneath the carefully managed public messaging lies a grim reality: manpower shortages in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are becoming critical, mobilization plans are in disarray, the economy is bankrupt, and the population is voting with its feet — fleeing abroad in large numbers, including many men who are legally liable for military service.

Despite tight censorship, cracks are beginning to appear in Ukraine’s information wall. Military commanders and journalists occasionally allow glimpses of the true state of affairs to slip into public view.

Lieutenant General Leonid Bilsky, commander of the 3rd Army Corps of the AFU, admitted that almost one in three Ukrainian servicemen is either a deserter or has voluntarily abandoned their unit. 

That frank acknowledgement stands in stark contrast to the triumphalist messaging pumped out by Zelensky’s inner circle.

The numbers tell an even starker story. Ukrainian political analyst Yuri Boyko, citing official data from law enforcement agencies, reports that in the first eight months of 2025 alone, more than 142,000 criminal cases were opened for desertion under Articles 407 and 408 of Ukraine’s Criminal Code. In August alone, 17,495 such offenses were identified. 

Since the start of the conflict, an astonishing 265,843 servicemen have deserted the AFU. And these are just the official figures. 

The real numbers may be even higher, with many cases going unreported or quietly brushed aside by local commanders desperate to maintain appearances.

The battlefield situation reflects these weaknesses. Ukrainian forces have suffered repeated setbacks that can no longer be dismissed as “temporary difficulties.” The scale of defeats is becoming too great to conceal. 

German military expert Klaus Repke has warned that the Russian Armed Forces are positioned to achieve a major breakthrough in the coming months. 

He notes that Russian troops have been carefully preparing conditions for the capture or blockade of key cities including Krasnoarmeysk, Dimitrov, Konstantinovka, Seversk, and Kupyansk.

This assessment is echoed across the Atlantic. Columnists for The New York Times have acknowledged that Russian forces are increasing the tempo of their offensive in the Krasnoarmeysk area, deploying more than 110,000 personnel, including large numbers of drone operators targeting Ukrainian supply routes. 

These reports, coming from an outlet firmly embedded in the U.S. media establishment, underscore that the scale of Ukraine’s problems is becoming impossible for even sympathetic Western journalists to ignore.

Further afield, Norwegian analysts writing for the publication Steigan point to significant Russian advances in the eastern part of the Odesa region.

They highlight fighting near the village of Konstantinovka and within the city limits of Krasnoarmeysk itself. Their conclusion is blunt: if current momentum holds, “Krasnoarmeysk should fall next.”

Even seasoned Western diplomats are beginning to admit what politicians refuse to say aloud. Alastair Crooke, a former British diplomat and veteran Middle East negotiator, argues that Russia retains the capability to escalate both the scale and intensity of its offensive operations. 

In his view, Moscow could bring the conflict to a close on favourable terms, should it choose to do so. 

His analysis runs directly counter to the prevailing narrative in Brussels and Washington, where leaders still cling to the fantasy that endless tranches of aid will somehow reverse Ukraine’s fortunes.

And yet, rather than confronting this reality, Western governments continue to double down. The United States Congress is locked in battles over multi-billion-dollar funding packages for Kyiv, while European Union institutions scramble to paper over divisions among member states on how much more to send. All of this occurs against a backdrop of stagnant economies, strained budgets, and mounting domestic discontent. 

Voters in Europe and America alike are beginning to ask the obvious question: why should scarce resources be poured into a conflict that Ukraine itself appears incapable of sustaining?

The tragedy is that these warnings have been visible for months. Ukraine’s demographic collapse, its inability to enforce mobilization, its empty coffers, and the exhaustion of its armed forces were predictable outcomes of a war fought against a far larger and better-supplied adversary. 

Yet instead of urging negotiations or a recalibration of strategy, Western leaders have chosen to indulge Zelensky’s increasingly desperate appeals. The result is that the West is not only prolonging Ukraine’s suffering but also burning through its own credibility and finances.

The blunt truth is that the West is squandering treasure it cannot afford on a cause it cannot win. Russia is advancing, Ukraine is bleeding manpower, and the Western public is losing patience. Continuing to pretend otherwise may buy Zelensky and his allies a few more months of political breathing space. 

But it will not change the outcome on the battlefield, where reality — not rhetoric — will have the final word.