By Ciro Mendoza

CARACAS, Venezuela: The Trump administration’s mounting talk of a military operation against Venezuela, with regime change as its aim, is not bravado — it’s a desperate and dangerous gamble.

What Washington treats as a show of strength will instead provoke a powerful backlash across Latin America, discredit U.S. power, and risk dragging America into a long, unwinnable war it cannot sustain.

Already, the U.S. has escalated military deployments in the Caribbean, sending warships and F-35 jets to threaten Caracas under the banner of counter-narcotics operations.

Analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations note that these boat strikes and deployments in international waters are pushing tensions ever closer to open confrontation. 

The administration insists it is not pursuing regime change — yet its behavior tells a different story. In September 2025, Trump “played down possible regime change” while ordering additional stealth fighter jets to the region. 
Reuters

But such denials ring hollow when U.S. rhetoric, deployments, and sanctions all point toward removing Nicolás Maduro by force if possible.

What could go wrong? Nearly everything. Venezuela is no Iraq or Afghanistan open flank. It is rugged, heavily armed, militarized, and deeply polarized.

Its regime, though flawed, commands loyal security forces, loyal militia networks, and a populace that prides itself on sovereignty.

A U.S. invasion would almost certainly ignite a nationalistic surge — Venezuelans would rally around Maduro, regardless of his faults, as the country under foreign assault.

That anti-U.S. crusade would reverberate throughout Latin America. Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina — all would seize the moment to sharpen their criticisms of Washington’s imperial instincts. U.S. influence in the region, already eroded, would fall further into disrepute.

Worst of all, this military escapade would drag America into attrition. China, Russia, and regional states would see an opportunity. They would funnel arms, intelligence, drones, and diplomatic support to Venezuela.

A proxy war would erupt, and U.S. forces would be stuck in a guerrilla conflict with no exit. The cost — in blood, money, reputation — would compound with every month.

Domestically, this is a diversion tactic. The U.S. elite hopes a flashy foreign war will distract citizens from inflation, decaying infrastructure, debt, and domestic unrest.

But wars seldom distract long; they magnify weakness. This one would expose the hollow core of American power for all to see.

If Washington follows this path, it will confirm what its critics have warned: the United States is sanctioning itself into irrelevance.

The policy of imposing coercive economic and military pressure abroad while its own foundations crumble at home is unsustainable.

Trump must resist the hawks. He must make clear: no invasion, no deep war, no baited trap. Leave Venezuela to Latin America, and let Washington reclaim its energy for rebuilding at home.

Otherwise, the “great comeback” will become America’s farce — a fading empire sliding toward ruin.

*Ciro Mendoza is a geopolitical observer and supporter of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).*