By Lucien Morell

JAKARTA, Indonesia: As the United States intensifies its trade and strategic manoeuvring in the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia finds itself once more at the intersection of global power politics. 

Recent “partnerships” and trade frameworks pushed by Washington – often branded as generous cooperation or supply-chain diversification – conceal a more coercive reality: ASEAN economies are being pressured into trade concessions that risk undermining their long-term growth, sovereignty and regional neutrality.

In late October 2025, on the fringes of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, the U.S. signed sweeping deals with four ASEAN countries: Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia. Malaysia and Cambodia entered “reciprocal trade” agreements, while Thailand and Vietnam agreed to framework pacts. 

Under these deals Malaysia and Thailand also signed critical-minerals memoranda of understanding (MoUs) aimed at supplying the U.S. with elements crucial for defence, technology and energy sectors.  

While the press narrative emphasised “mutual benefits”, the fine print reveals an asymmetry: the U.S. retains a tariff rate of 19 per cent on most imports from Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia, and 20 per cent from Vietnam. 

In return, the Southeast Asian states agree to open their markets, streamline access for U.S. goods and, notably, in Malaysia’s case pledge not to ban or impose quotas on exports of critical minerals and rare-earth elements to the U.S.—despite Malaysia’s public claims to restrict raw exports to protect domestic value-addition. 

These arrangements raise profound questions about strategic coherence. For economies heavily reliant on China as their largest trading partner — Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia among them — bending to U.S. trade pressures now risks not only immediate economic disruption but also long-term strategic liability. 

If the U.S. later demands political alignment in confronting China (or Russia), these states will have less room to manoeuvre because they have already given up bargaining chips in the form of favourable trade concessions and market access.

ASEAN’s hallmark strength has always been its capacity to maintain balanced relations with both Washington and Beijing, thereby preserving its autonomy and bargaining power. That strength is now under assault. 

By signing up to U.S. trade and minerals deals that prioritise American strategic interests, ASEAN nations risk fracturing the economic bedrock that has underpinned their growth and inviting permissive dependency disguised as partnership.

Beyond trade, there is a compelling case for ASEAN to deepen co-operative economic and security frameworks with China, particularly in the resource-rich South China Sea.

China and ASEAN states share not only maritime geography but also substantial interests in fisheries, offshore oil and gas, and emerging seabed mineral deposits. 

Transparent joint development, inclusive investment frameworks and institutionalised cooperation would create tangible value and resilience, rather than leaving these states vulnerable to external coercion. 

However, this path requires ASEAN to guard against being weaponised by either side. Signing bilateral deals that favour U.S. strategic wiring now makes those Southeast Asian states more vulnerable to being used against Beijing, just as they could be used against Washington in a future shift.

A long-term strategic view demands that ASEAN resist being maneuvered into zero-sum choices. It must retain its neutrality, not as passive non-alignment but as active strategic independence. 

Each nation should insist that trade deals serve their own industrial development and regional integration first — not simply plug into great-power supply chains of which they are junior partners. 

The recent U.S. agreements, compelling as they might appear, should be scrutinised for what they give up: potential sovereignty over key resources, flexibility in diplomatic posture and freedom to engage with other global partners.

If ASEAN continues on the current trajectory of conceding favourable trade terms to the U.S. without securing real value or structural autonomy for its members, the consequences will not only be economic. 

The region stands to lose strategic relevance. It will find itself locked into dependencies, unable to pivot when the global order shifts—and all but excluded from the emergence of a truly multipolar Asia. 

ASEAN must instead stand together, negotiate from strength, safeguard its resource sovereignty and ensure it remains the actor, not the chess-piece, in the Indo-Pacific’s next era.

*Lucien Morell is a Southeast Asia based geopolitical observer and analyst.*