By Collins Chong Yew Keat

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: The capture of Nicolás Maduro marks the pinnacle of U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategic power calculations and a manifestation of Washington’s unwavering intent to keep Russia and China at bay and reassert American dominance and primacy in the Western Hemisphere.

The Pentagon executed one of the most complex raids in modern history without a major hitch, a powerful warning and a reminder that the U.S. can project power anywhere, anytime and in novel ways with overwhelming force, clear objectives, and rapid conclusion.

It is a strategic revival of the Monroe Doctrine and of regaining long-eroded American power hegemony in its own backyard, which had been hijacked by Moscow and Beijing for years under Trump’s predecessors.

For years, U.S. society has suffered from fentanyl deaths and widespread destruction from the almost unchecked influx of illicit drugs. Tonnes of cocaine entered U.S. streets, fuelling violence and contributing to over 100,000 overdose deaths annually.

Bush, Obama, and Biden all failed to address this effectively, offering at most cosmetic actions at the border. Not with Trump. By bringing Maduro to justice and pressuring the remnants of his regime, the U.S. disrupted key trafficking pipelines. 

This mission is thus viewed as a law-enforcement action against narcotics traffickers, not a conventional war or outright invasion. 

Trump had designated Venezuelan cartels and corrupt officials as narco-terrorists, and this operation was about saving U.S. lives from the devastation of drug addiction. Trump’s decisive strike sends a clear message to cartels and their state sponsors that such actions will no longer enjoy impunity, making both Venezuelan and U.S. families safer.

Secondly, this action addresses the illegal migration crisis by tackling its root cause. Millions of Venezuelans fled because of regime-induced collapse, and Trump’s move opens a path to stabilisation and rebuilding so Venezuelans no longer feel compelled to escape en masse. Reconstructing a free and prosperous Venezuela with good governance and respect for the people’s rights will reduce the migrant wave that has seen desperate people flooding into the U.S. and neighbouring countries.

Under Obama and Biden, this core driver was never addressed.

Trump identified the root problem and acted to fulfil his promise of a safer America and a safer Latin America. Over 7 to 8 million people fled Maduro’s chaos, including large numbers headed for the U.S. Trump directly tackles this source: with the regime removed and reform possible, Venezuelans can again hope for a future at home, reducing incentives for illegal migration. This is a far-sighted solution that addresses the problem at its source rather than reacting symbolically at the border.

Third, this move checkmates China’s and Russia’s proxy influence in the Western Hemisphere. Under Maduro, Venezuela became a bastion for U.S. rivals, where Tehran, Moscow and Beijing expanded influence in Latin America, challenging Washington in its own backyard while advancing their geopolitical, energy and economic interests.

Moscow propped up Maduro with loans, oilfield deals and military aid, and it has now lost a client state and arms customer. 

President Putin has learned a lesson about the capacity of Washington under Trump if red lines are crossed. Venezuela had long been positioned as an anti-U.S. outpost, equipped with fighter jets, loans and even a surveillance satellite programme. Moscow assumed Washington lacked the will to intervene directly in Latin America, especially after years of inaction under Obama and Biden. Trump shattered that assumption.

Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with over 300 billion barrels, providing a strategic lifeline for U.S. adversaries.

The Monroe Doctrine Reborn

The doctrine now carries a modern twist: the “Donroe Doctrine,” combining Donald and Monroe.

The message is unmistakable: this is America’s hemisphere, and no foreign power or ideology will be permitted to threaten it. Previous administrations allowed the region to be infiltrated by adversaries; Trump is reversing that.

For Trump, it is unacceptable for Chinese companies to seize ports or mines in Latin America, or for Iran to expand influence in Central America. The Western Hemisphere is America’s sphere, requiring Chinese state firms to be kept away from critical infrastructure, Russian or Iranian military basing blocked, and deterrence maintained so strong that foreign powers hesitate even to establish a presence.

Colonising Venezuela is not the objective. The goal is to ensure Latin states are governed by competent, accountable governments that respect their people’s rights, do not threaten neighbours or the U.S., and do not tolerate illicit activities that harm Americans. 

In practice, this means removing malign external influence so the Western Hemisphere remains stable. The ultimate message is clear: the region is off-limits to tyranny and foreign adventurism, a principle that has preserved stability for centuries.

China Checkmated by Trump’s Masterstroke

Under Maduro, Beijing was the primary beneficiary of Venezuela’s oil wealth, pumping tens of billions into oil-for-loan deals that secured discounted crude beyond U.S. oversight and in violation of sanctions. Much of this oil flowed to Chinese refiners at bargain prices. Trump’s operation severed this lifeline in a single move.

China accounted for more than half of Venezuela’s oil exports, with much of it routed to opaque “teapot” refiners willing to flout sanctions. Under renewed U.S. oversight, any oil China continues to receive will be sold at fair market prices. Venezuela had served as an insurance policy for China’s energy security, and that insurance has now faltered.

This has major implications for Beijing’s strategic calculations. It constrains China’s economic momentum and its capacity to sustain a prolonged conflict, especially regarding Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army can no longer assume the U.S. is unwilling to act. Venezuela once seemed safely beyond U.S. reach; Trump proved otherwise. China is now more strategically cornered and must think twice before risking conflict with the United States.

Foiling Beijing’s Taiwan Ambitions

Energy security is China’s Achilles’ heel. Beijing spent decades diversifying oil imports to reduce reliance on U.S.-controlled sea routes, and Venezuela was central to that strategy. China invested over $50 billion in loans-for-oil deals, assuming U.S. non-intervention in Latin America. By late 2025, up to 80 percent of Venezuela’s oil exports flowed quietly to China, often disguised through ship-to-ship transfers.

With this chokehold in place, and if conflict disrupts Persian Gulf supplies, China now has one fewer alternative. Fuel shortages could cripple any sustained military campaign. Trump’s move reduces China’s war chest and limits its capacity for a prolonged conflict, particularly an invasion of Taiwan.
With Venezuela removed from China’s orbit, Beijing becomes more dependent on Middle Eastern routes effectively overseen by the U.S. Navy. This weakens China’s position and gives Washington leverage as a warning over Taiwan.

Trump’s strategy represents multi-front containment. Instead of a frontal clash in the Western Pacific, he struck Chinese interests where Beijing never expected resistance, forcing China to divert focus and absorb higher strategic costs.

More Than Just Oil

The focus on oil alone oversimplifies the issue. While Venezuela’s reserves matter in the long term, the U.S. does not need Venezuelan oil today. America is energy independent, producing a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, far exceeding Venezuela’s output. 

Venezuela pumped under one million barrels daily, less than 1 percent of global supply. What it does possess are reserves requiring sustained investment and expertise.

Venezuela’s oil will now benefit its people and mutually beneficial trade with the U.S., rather than lining the pockets of Maduro and Beijing. U.S. firms can rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry, restoring productivity after decades of socialist neglect. This will improve living standards, stabilise the country, and reduce migrant outflows.

U.S. Oil Companies Built Venezuela’s Oil Boom

U.S. firms built Venezuela’s oil sector, with ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips as major investors until Hugo Chávez nationalised assets in 2007. The Venezuelan oil miracle was fuelled by U.S. technology before being dismantled by nationalist policies. Trump is restoring that lost capacity.

U.S. refiners prefer Venezuela’s heavy crude, and Venezuela needs investment. With sanctions lifted and U.S. capital returning, output could double or triple, with profits rebuilding Venezuela and benefiting American consumers. Trump will not allow exploitative arrangements; Venezuela’s wealth will benefit both nations.

A Law-Enforcement Perspective

The capture of Maduro was framed as a targeted counter-narcotics raid, not a war against Venezuela. Secretary Rubio emphasised it was a law-enforcement operation grounded in Justice Department indictments and regional self-defence. To preserve surprise and security, Congress was not notified in advance. Trump made the call that U.S. lives come first.

Judicious and Safe Transition

Trump prioritised a controlled transition, avoiding chaos and a repeat of Libya or Iraq. This stabilisation mission keeps U.S. forces offshore, relying on speed, surprise and overwhelming force to prevent prolonged conflict or power vacuums that breed insurgencies. Trump aims to win wars in days, not decades.
Critics cite international law, yet Trump’s team notes the hypocrisy of allies who rely on U.S. security while condemning U.S. self-defence. Rubio has criticised such double standards.

Ending Systemic Repression in Venezuela

Years of graft and repression turned an oil-rich nation into a humanitarian disaster. Over 20 million Venezuelans live in poverty, with crime and cartels flourishing. Stabilisation opens the door to humanitarian relief and recovery. Neighbouring countries are taking note of Trump’s red lines.

In the final analysis, Trump demonstrated unapologetic leadership where predecessors hesitated. For decades, China and Russia expanded influence in Latin America with impunity. Trump broke that pattern guided by one principle: protect U.S. and U.S. interests, and with it, prove that U.S. leadership is back.

*Collins Chong Yew Keat is a foreign affairs and strategy analyst and author in University of Malaya.*