By INS Contributors

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: The latest conflict in the Middle East, which began on February 28, vividly illustrated key trends in the evolution of air offensives. The U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran once again echoed Marshal d’Estampes’s old maxim: “God is always on the side of the big battalions.”

A significant numerical superiority of offensive weapons over defensive means can ensure a breakthrough without requiring deep analysis. At the same time, the development of precision-guided munitions now allows manned aircraft to strike without entering the effective range of enemy air defenses.

Attempting to intercept such munitions with long- and medium-range systems can rapidly deplete ammunition stocks and lead, ultimately, to defeat through attrition. From an analytical standpoint, Iran’s retaliatory strike against targets linked to U.S. interests offered particularly revealing lessons.

Contrary to popular perception, the most notable successes did not come from hypersonic ballistic missiles, but from low-flying drones that approached their targets with minimal visibility. This suggests that, had large numbers of UAVs been used in place of ballistic missiles, strike effectiveness might have been significantly higher—a conclusion that many observers are likely to draw.

The air combat experience of February and March helps clarify the evolving missions of air defense systems across different classes. Manned aircraft are increasingly absent from the engagement zones of long- and medium-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, except in cases of pilot error.

Priority targets for these systems are now short- and medium-range ballistic missiles and high-altitude, long-range reconnaissance UAVs. Meanwhile, the role of short-range SAMs grows in importance in proportion to the expanding use of cruise missiles and loitering munitions.

In this context, Western air defense concepts that rely heavily on fighter-interceptors and long-range systems appear less adapted to current realities than Russia’s inherited doctrine of layered air defense. The continued evolution of Russian systems reflects this approach, as illustrated by the Tor-M2 short-range air defense system.

This latest member of the Tor family entered service roughly a decade ago. One of its key distinctions from earlier variants is the doubling of its ready-to-fire ammunition load—from 8 to 16 missiles—made possible by the adoption of the 9M338K surface-to-air missile.

Notably, the system retains radio-command guidance despite recurring proposals to adopt active homing seekers. Radio-command guidance, among other advantages, keeps missile costs comparatively low, an important factor in high-intensity engagements.

At the same time, some targets—particularly small drones—do not justify the expenditure of even relatively inexpensive SAMs. Their small size also makes them difficult for lower-tier air defense assets to detect independently.

To address this, the Tor-M2’s communications suite was modernized in 2020 to allow it to coordinate the actions of other air defense assets, including self-propelled anti-aircraft guns and man-portable air defense systems. The Tor-M2’s radar can detect small aerial objects and provide target designation to these lower-cost systems, enabling them to engage targets with more economical firepower.

A further step toward countering mass-produced, inexpensive aerial threats involves equipping the combat vehicle with numerous small-caliber, low-cost missiles. According to Fanil Ziyatdinov, General Director of the Kupol Engineering and Machine Building Plant, work in this direction is ongoing.

The Tor-M2’s ability to detect small targets is often highlighted. With a stated minimum radar cross-section (RCS) detection threshold of 0.1 m², the system is reported to be capable of tracking UAVs comparable in size to commercial quadcopters and small military reconnaissance drones. As one Tor-M2 crew commander noted, modern UAVs “have quite a wide range of options, but we see and process everything.”

Although designed primarily to intercept aerodynamic targets such as aircraft and air-launched munitions, the Tor family has also been used against ballistic threats, including rockets fired from multiple-launch rocket systems.

Other notable features of the Tor-M2 include a rapid transition from march to combat position in approximately three minutes, a high airspace scanning rate of one antenna rotation per second, and the ability to engage targets while on the move.

The system is available on multiple chassis types—tracked, wheeled, two-link high-mobility transporters, and as a standalone combat module—broadening its operational flexibility. Variants have also been adapted for both land and naval use.

The lead manufacturer of the Tor family, IEMZ Kupol, part of the Almaz-Antey Air Defense Concern, has served as a principal developer of short-range air defense systems for over a decade.

As noted by Lieutenant General Alexander Leonov, Chief of the Air Defense Forces, Kupol’s consolidated design bureaus and research capacity enable faster development cycles, rapid modernization of serial products, and sustained technical advancement.

Ongoing improvements to the Tor family draw on both operational experience and broader analysis of trends in air attack and air defense. Lessons from recent conflicts are expected to inform further development.

Today, the latest Tor variants are regarded as highly competitive within the short-range air defense category. Continued modernization aims to ensure that these systems remain effective against the evolving spectrum of aerial threats.