Muhyiddin may stay on if no alternative emerges
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My preliminary analysis on the latest development after 10 UMNO MPs (including Kuli) declare their pull out from the Muhyiddin Government (20210803, 1920)
1. Up until last week, the government has only 114 Seats (excluding kuli), now with the withdrawal of 9 more MPs, Muhyiddin has at most 105. If He cannot reverse the loss of majority, his number is going to shrink to two digits in days If not hours to come. Certainly, more UMNO parliamentarians May follow.
2. The question is: will an alternative majority emerge? If there is, the new PM should immediately convene the Parliament to table a motion of confidence in itself, to confirm his power and stabilise politics.
3. However, If an alternative majority fails to emerge, the power struggle may drag on. Muhyiddin may stay on or strive to stay on as the Minority PM.
4. The fate of other BN parliamentarians depends on whether a new government can be quickly formed, and how much its composition differs from the current one.
5. At one extreme, If the government is almost identical except at the top, like Perak on last December 4, as Muhyiddin steps down to save his followers, the pro-muhyiddin BN parliamentarians survive with little price.
6. At the other extreme, If Muhyiddin resists and a new government is formed with UMNO rebels and largely the Opposition (and likely GPS), then Muhyiddin's loyalists would be condemned to the political wilderness.
7. The uncertainty suggests the need for two constitutional/parliamentary mechanisms: a Constructive Vote of no confidence (CVNC) where a government cannot be overthrown until an alternative government with majority is in store, and Confidence and Supply Agreements (CSA) for Minority governments to survive.
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